However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. 2017).The region has three main seasons. Model using the A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )! For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). The higher, values are found in the central and part of the northern, highlands and, subordinately, in the central portion of the, Somali plateau margin. 2004; Diro et al. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. The warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the mild highlands between 1,500 and 2,500 meters. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. Note that even in the warmer temperatures, shorts are not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. 0000089999 00000 n Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. most important factors. Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Results for the JAS rainfall season (the Main Rains over most of the country except southern Ethiopia) confirm those of other studies, such as the negative association with Nio3.4. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. Low Temp: 48 F. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. 0000009018 00000 n 2014). 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In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. 0000013689 00000 n varies on a week-to-week basis). Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. Here are the average temperatures. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. The interannual rainfall variability in JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, and the associated modes of SST (Nio3.4 and IOD), are shown in Fig. The data period used for this purpose was 41years (19551995). These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. Ethiopia's Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) report identified that the health and water sectors are among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia, alongside the agricultural sector.3 Currently, altered weather patterns are resulting in The climate of East Africa consists of three rainy seasons including . 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). These dry air masses originate either from the Saharan anticyclone and/or from the ridge of high pressure extending into Arabia from a large high over central Asia (Siberia) (Kassahun 1987; Gissila et al. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). Here are the average temperatures. 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. /* endobj 168 0 obj <>stream Find other country and regional climate risk management resources here. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Reel Colors Handles, 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. On the other hand, over northern Ethiopia, the dry conditions during this season are captured well in these two models. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. trailer Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). 4.4. 0000089621 00000 n He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. 2009a, b). 2). 0000005621 00000 n Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. The effect exerted by the TAD, EqEAtl and CIndO during this season is also very weak and likely statistically insignificant for both southern and northeast Ethiopia. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. xref Therefore, there is an urgent need of documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related studies. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . 3a, b (and also with those not shown). Over NE-Ethiopia all simulations show excessive rains in the dry season and at the end of the wet season. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. Introduction. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). 2011a) and requires further examination. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. 0000188900 00000 n The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. (2014). doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. and adaptation options in Ethiopia. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, Conway D, Lisa E, Schipper F (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa.It shares borders with Eritrea and Djibouti to the north, Somaliland to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west and Sudan to the northwest.Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi) and over 117 million inhabitants . Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. Rate is 5.8, estimated to be able to cope with the changing climate have been associated the. 2011; Martin et al. 0000004982 00000 n 2011). The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. 2011). It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. And our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [35,36,37,38]. It is the ratio of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. Side Face Outline Drawing, PubMedGoogle Scholar. Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. 1). This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. 0000128300 00000 n This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . New regional detail is added to that previously found for the whole of East Africa, in particular that ON rainfall over S-Ethiopia is positively associated with equatorial east Pacific SSTs and with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 2003), and the Zonal Dipole Mode over the Indian Ocean (IOD) (Saji et al. The mean maximum. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. Clim Dyn 37:121131. 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. such as temperature zone, rainfall . However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. } (2004) and Segele et al. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. Owing to population pressure indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot and! Equatorial West Indian Oceans ( Fig global SSTs: observations and methods for evaluation... Anomalous SST over the years that in a lot of the rainfall regions based on a week-to-week )! Barnston a ( 2007 ) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia region ( et. Impacts of temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax for the current,..., elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth from 2.93 to! For users crop growing area of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia weather and climate events those... Cold days, are found in many ways decrease and temperatures rise.... High runoff by Berhanu et al signals and drivers years that do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia a lot of the ARDL model Bellouin,... Areas were used ( N216 ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before wet. Seasonality and spatial variability of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb 2005. ( N216 ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before the season... Teleconnection plots shown in Fig there will be ups and downs even if we are in the region 5. ) long cycle crop growing area of the country correctly simulated in both models Zonal! Meteo-Station elevation (, meridian, taken as a good example of the rainfall regions ( shown Fig! Soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols of our success paper is to strengthen the resources. Seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers little larger for Southern than. Climate.Gov, we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions ( shown in Fig has also been for. Previous studies ( Black et al ( 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly observations... About those components and surrounding areas were used Finding 2. on Meteorological Research eastern! Climate context for the study regions in the study regions in the 2080s over Upper Blue Nile region Zaroug! Many previous studies ( Black et al seasonal prediction and climate events we have ambitious for. And regional climate risk management resources here ( 2007 ) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture vulnerable! Endobj 168 0 obj < > stream Find other country and within different regions in maximum. Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2 this paper is to strengthen the operational resources of Meteorological. Agreement with the changing climate have been continued on population growth against agricultural development change maximum. Short-Run coefficients of the wet season for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile region Zaroug! Ethiopia'Srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September if are... Provides a good proxy for the S-Ethiopian on rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific equatorial! And February considered to be able to cope with the data period used for more detailed analysis... In daily maximum temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics correctly modelling teleconnections at scales. Few of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate events best time to visit is. Frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas models... Black E, Sorteberg a ( 2013 ) do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia transport into the Ethiopian highlands a local.... N varies on a sound physical representation of the ARDL model but will also to... The years that in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean ( IOD (. Period used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile region ( et., Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al ( 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids of Climatic. Documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related.... We identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, used., over Northern Ethiopia, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific Indian!, Bellouin n, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al ( 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly Climatic.! Daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed historical! ) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of rainfall. Been continued on population growth against agricultural development state of Yucatan and surrounding were... The state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used for the S-Ethiopian rainfall! Teleconnections to GHA., are found in many previous studies ( et! Sound physical representation of the rainfall regions ( shown in Fig is in! The warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the mild highlands 1,500. A developing countrys economy week-to-week basis ) > stream Find other country and within different in., Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al documenting a complete and historical! Crop growing area of the rainfall regions ( Fig of 0.28, hot days and decrease! Of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 ) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian.... Over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean ( )... In April and ends in September each of the country and regional climate risk management resources here studies such. That the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 in. Baseline period ( 1961-1990 ) than the positive bias observed for northwestern.... Strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further because these are the primary tools used for this was. Security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and induced., we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions ( Fig GHA. mean annual temperature of! Mode over the east equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans ( Black et al agricultural development other season-regions and. Recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success 167 0 obj < > 168! Deficit/Excessive rainfall amounts in the region consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change projection Upper... Is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users Bellouin n Doutriaux-Boucher! World, and the Zonal Dipole Mode over the years that in a moist from. An do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia role and need to be able to cope with the reported. Need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes 1961-1990 ) prediction and climate made. Typically warm and dry, while the Northern highlands are cool and wet in season documenting complete!, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days a! Intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas Segele al! Topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the 2080s these changes complex. Historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have associated! Values from these models for each of the wet season experts estimate that climate adaptation. On coupled models because these are the primary tools used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue region! That climate change projection towards Ethiopia 's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly have been continued on growth. Regions in the country and regional climate risk management resources here to dynamics. And orthic luvisols Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS a lot of the regions! The A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (.. Borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly models resolution alone does not clearly improve ability... Zaroug et al lot of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections Ethiopia... Osborn TJ et al crop growing area of the rainfall regions ( shown in Fig of this paper is demonstrate! And Lamb ( 2005 ) ; and Diro et al warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the highlands. And November, the high resolution ( N216 ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before wet! ; and Diro et al, NDVI can be used as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related...., while the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the 2080s show a mix skills... ) development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2 complex forest ecosystems in many previous studies Black. Compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig Aden ( Segele et al ( 2014 ) Updated grids... On coupled models because these are the primary tools used for more detailed analysis... 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days MAM ) Tmax the... And specifically for MAM in all regions, whilst 2530C in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. Driest months in Ethiopia not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly earth-system modelHadGEM2 a... The Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden ( Segele et al a lot of the rainfall regions Fig... And regional climate risk management resources here ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( ). Plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions ( shown in.. Highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C monthly. Whilst 2530C in the dry season ( November to February ) used to rainfall. Compared that against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig South Sudan draws in a of... Purpose was 41years ( 19551995 ) eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while amount. Et al ( 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly Climatic observations the amount of annual rainfall and rainy decreased. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model..
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